Unlike forecasting, which extrapolates current trends, backcasting is the process of visualising how you want to live during your marginal (final) decade – such as being able to play with grandchildren – and working backwards to determine what functional markers you need to work with now to make that possible, prioritising choice over fate.
Of course, the marginal decade (as defined by longevity guru Peter Attia) is hypothetical in that none of us know when we will shuffle off this mortal coil, but Attia talks about a “health cliff” around the age of 75, in which we experience a sudden decline in ability, losing substantial capacity quickly. He emphasises choice over fate, in that the quality of our lives in the marginal decade is determined by actions taken now, aiming for an active versus a dependent future.
I’m sometimes asked at the gym, “Should I be making more progress?” In some instances, the answer is yes, but in many cases, my response is words to the effect of, “try stopping and see how fast you go backwards.” The point being that the work you put in now will help to preserve functionality in your marginal decade.
One of the things I want the NeuroGym® to focus on in 2026 is using a backcasting approach to exercise adherence – envisioning your functional future self (at 80 or 90) and working backwards – to put the work you do now into context.
Attia’s philosophy is to proactively train for this decade, using a performance-based approach, like training for a sport, to build physical and mental capacity (strength, aerobic fitness, emotional resilience) in the preceding years, aiming to make those final years as functional and enjoyable as possible, rather than experiencing a steep decline.
So, here’s the thing: What would you like to be able to do (functionally) in your marginal decade, and what do you need to do now to make that happen?